Pitch well in the month of May and you might stay in the bullpen. Cingrani is on thin ice right now with Alfredo Simon surging in the starting role with Mat Latos out. Most are going with Simon heading back to the bullpen, but Bryan Price has no indication of who goes back. Price should focus on amount of innings each starter gets and how many runs allowed. Starting pitching is getting the money’s worth versus bullpen, Simon is an Arbitration player versus Cingrani, who is still in Pre-Arbitration. Overall, got to get more innings out of Cingrani to stay in rotation.
Cingrani’s Quartile range is 4.25-6.25 IP, Cingrani has had two starts in that range. Cingrani has been less than 4.25 in 2 starts and higher than 6.25 in 2 starts. Got to get at least 6.1 IP/start.
Cingrani has done a very good job of allowing no hits, did allow no more than 5 in his first 4 starts. Cingrani has allowed 6 in the last two starts. If Cingrani keeps up with that and manages to hold runners from scoring, then he’ll likely stay on the rotation. 3-6 is the goal per start.
Cingrani has been known to hold those runners on base and has allowed no more than 3 in the 2014 season. A reasonable goal for Cingrani is to allow no more than 1-3 per start.
Another thing that Cingrani can do is not allow a lot are walks, typically walk 2 to 4 batters per start. Cingrani has not been lower than 2 or or higher than 4 in April.
One thing that was really missed in 2 of his last 3 starts were strikeouts.
KEEP IT UP: No Home run balls, he has allowed 1 home run in 3 of his last 4 starts, but that can change quickly and not allow a home run ball. He did not allow a home run against the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates in the month of April, but allowed 2 home runs to the Chicago Cubs.
Keep pitching like this and the bullpen won’t be calling for you. Simon and Cingrani are competing for the 5th spot in the rotation with the return of Mat Latos sometime in the month of May. Simon has two factors into play, he eats a lot of innings up and doesn’t allow a lot of runs in his start, only 7 runs in 5 starts
Keep pitching up to 6 innings, can pitch up to 8 innings. Simon has pitched more than 6 innings in each start.
Allowing 4-5 hits is reasonable for a starter, keep it up. Simon has allowed 4 hits in 3 of 5 starts.
Allowing runs is something a pitcher does not want to do, but 1-2 should be it. Simon has allowed no more than 2 runs in all of his starts in 2014.
Simon in one game allowed 5 walks, which is an outlier to his season. Simon will typically was 1-2 batters in a game and if that pace keeps going
One thing hasn’t really done is striking batters out. The goal for Simon is to strikeouts 4-5 batters, but he has hit that mark of 4 or more batters 4 out of 5 times so far this season.
One thing I do like about Alfredo Simon this season is keeping the ball in the park. Simon has given the long ball shot twice, but only allows it once. Simon doing an excellent job on that.
Leave April in the past and move on to the next opponents. Bailey faced 3 of the 5 postseason teams from last year, unfortunate spots, but has to let it go. Next three starts to start the month of May are the Milwaukee Brewers, Boston Red Sox and the San Diego Padres.
Need more innings from Bailey, 6 or more is good. Bailey has hit that in the last two starts of April, so that can be goods news…for now.
Bailey gets hit off of a lot, in a baseball way. Bailey allows 7-8 hits per game, got to cut down on that factor. He has allowed 7 or more hits in each start to start the season.
Bailey typically allows 3-4 runs per start. Bailey has allowed 4 or less runs in 3 of 5 starts. If Bailey allows less than 4 per start, he will gain his confidence once again.
One thing that Bailey has done and it is good is not allowing walks, he has allowed no walks in 2 of 5 starts.
Strikeouts, 8 per start is a goal, but 4-8 is good enough in a start. Bailey has struck out more than 4 batters in 4 starts.
Home runs, that April 14th game was an OUTLIER. That game is not typical of Homer Bailey, but he usually allows 1 home run. Obvious to go 0 home runs per start and has done it once. Bailey has given up a home run in 3 of 5 starts.
Keep doing ace things. Cueto has to throw at least 7 or more innings in every start in May, every single start he has had in the month of April all had 7 or more innings.
Allowing less than 3 hits per start. Cueto did that 4 times in the month of April.
Cueto allowing little to no runs in a start. He has allowed 1 run in 2 starts and 2 runs in 2 starts.
Allow no more than 1 walk per start. He has allowed no more than 1
Keep on striking out batters at high rates. Goal is 4 or more and has done it in all 6 starts in 2014.
Make the long ball hard to hit. Cueto doesn’t need to allow a home run and he’s done it 4 times in 6 starts.
Pitch 6 to 7 innings per start. Leake pitched a high of 8 innings on April 9th at St. Louis
Try to allow no more than 5 hits per start. Leake did allow less than 5 times 3 times in the month of April
Allowing runs is a normal thing to do as a pitcher, but 3 or less is good for Leake. Leake allowed 3 or less in back to back starts against St. Louis and Pittsburgh on April 9th and 15th.
Leake has been very good at allowing no walks. The goal is to allow no more than 1 walk per game, he has done it twice in back to back starts against St. Louis and Pittsburgh on April 9th and 15th.
One thing Leake has to work on is getting strikeouts. The goal is 4 per start. He has thrown more than 4 strikeouts in a start, which was on April 15th against the Pirates.
Make it rain, make it rain. The Rain was coming down on Tuesday night, but that did not quiet the bats for the Reds. Reds managed to score 3 runs off Jeff Samardzija to put him down to 0-3 in the season. Monday’s game was postponed due to rain.
SCORING PLAYS
1ST INNING
BRANDON PHILLIPS HIT SACRIFICE FLY TO RIGHT, BRANDON PHILLIPS SCORED; REDS 1-0
3RD INNING
STARLIN CASTRO SINGLED TO CENTER, EMILIO BONIFACIO AND RYAN KALISH SCORED; CUBS 2-1
5TH INNING
BILLY HAMILTON HOMERED TO RIGHT; TIED 2-2
6TH INNING
CHRIS HEISEY SINGLED TO LEFT, ZACK COZART SCORED; REDS 3-2
SCORING COMPOSITE: CINCINNATI REDS 3, CHICAGO CUBS 2
Cubs at Reds for a 3 game series. Both teams met a week and a half ago which the Reds took 2 out of 3 as their first road trip stop. Both starting pitcher probables are the same as the first series.
PICK: Reds 5-4. Cubs pitching will allow no more than 8 hits, 5 runs, 3 walks, 8 strikeouts and a home run. For the Reds, 7 hits, 4 runs, 3 walks, 6 strikeouts and a home run.
Noticeable things to look at this week versus the past 4 weeks, the starting pitching has struggled to keep the lineups in check. The Reds managed to face two postseason teams from last season and it was the starting rotation that managed to struggle this week, the bullpen excelled in this weeks pitching. The Reds went to Pittsburgh to start out the week, played 4 games and managed to win 3 to gain 2 games in the week against the Pirates and attempt to climb back to the top of the standings. The Reds following their 4 game series was travel down south to Atlanta, where the Braves managed to start off early and managed to keep the lead and sweep the Reds
Mike Leake is good, but his ball didn’t go low enough. Mike unfortunately had a rough week, which is human of him to do. Leake faced the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 1st game and the Atlanta Braves in the 2nd game of their series. Leake will only pitch once next week against the Milwaukee Brewers.
Cueeeto, Cueeeto, Cueeeto, Cueeeto. Remember that? Clearly Cueto did. Don’t worry, he managed to quiet the Pirates fans that did that to him in the wildcard game.
Nonetheless, it didn’t shake him and there was absolutely no one there to rattle him. Cueto managed to pitch another complete game against those Pirates, where there were hockey fans at PNC Park in October than on Earth Day 2014. Where all of those “fans”?
One bad inning for Alfredo Simon this week and a win came in for the Reds. Simon has been impressive for the Reds as a spot starter for the injured starter Mat Latos. Simon absolutely eats up innings and could be competing against Tony Cingrani for innings. Simon was originally the Long Reliever and either Cingrani or Simon will be joining the bullpen. Cingrani was in the bullpen back in his college days and it would save a bullpen if he joined.
Speaking of Cingrani, he might be doing well to stay, but went pretty high in the pitch count in Pittsburgh this week. Another thing to point out that he had a 23 game streak to start out his career by allowing 5 or less hits. On Thursday, the Pirates managed to hit 6 hits off him, the first time he has allowed that many hits in a start .
PITTSBURGH GAME
6 IP/6 H/R/2 BB/7 SO
BAA .250/ERA 1.50/WHIP 1.33
GRADE: 89.51% (B)
RATES: 23.08% H/3.85% R/7.69% BB/26.92% SO
PER 9: 9.00 H/1.50 R/3.00 BB/10.50 SO
QUARTILE RANGE
5-6.1 IP
3-5 H
1-3 R
2-4 BB
5-7 SO
0-1 HR
.200-.211 BAA
1.50-5.40 ERA
1.26-1.60 WHIP
Most in Reds country are still questioning that $105 million contract, I wouldn’t question it. Bailey has been struggling so far this season and it is the NORM for him to struggle, just check his career splits. Bailey in my opinion is fine and will face opponents that struggle to hit in the next three starts.
It is very important to point this out to readers. The 5 numbers is a basic measure of what a pitcher does, same applies to batters. More about the 5 NUMBER SUMMARY
After reviewing the numbers, they’re lots of things to point out. Who stays in the rotation, Alfredo Simon or Tony Cingrani? What about Team vs Team stat, what team knows Reds pitching? It’s important to reach out to these numbers. In the 5 number summary, they’re OUTLIERS, they’re going to be plenty of those games. Outliers can either be a good or bad thing for pitching. One of the most important statistical measures I use are BAA, ERA and WHIP. Those three stats determine outcomes that are very important in deciding who is a clear candidate to be in that rotation or bullpen.
MORE ON THE 5 NUMBER SUMMARY IN THE APRIL REPORT FOR REDS PITCHERS ON THURSDAY MAY 1ST
PROBABLES FOR WEEK 5
CHICAGO CUBS
MONDAYAPRIL 28: JEFF SAMARDZIJA VS ALFREDO SIMON (7:10 EDT)
TUESDAY APRIL 29: EDWIN JACKSON VS. TONY CINGRANI (7:10 EDT)
WEDNESDAY APRIL 30: CARLOS VILLANUEVA VS. HOMER BAILEY (7:10 EDT)
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
THURSDAY MAY 1: MARCO ESTRADA VS. MIKE LEAKE (7:10 EDT)
FRIDAY MAY 2: WILY PERALTA VS. JOHNNY CUETO (7:10 EDT)
SATURDAY MAY 3: YOVANI GALLARDO VS. ALFREDO SIMON (7:10 EDT)
SUNDAY MAY 4: KYLE LOHSE VS. TONY CINGRANI (4:10 EDT)
As advertised, the Braves almost played the same exact game from Friday night, except the Reds did not rally to win. The Reds sent Devin Mesoraco to the Disabled for the strained hamstring, which could be either weeks or months of a return. Third Baseman Todd Frazier of the Reds had tightness in groin and has had it lately, likely not on the Disabled list. Braves go for a sweep, while the Reds try to salvage a game in Atlanta to end what is considered a successful road trip.
SCORING PLAYS
1ST INNING
RYAN LUDWICK DOUBLED TO DEEP CENTER, BRANDON PHILLIPS SCORED, JAY BRUCE TO THIRD; REDS 1-0
FREDDIE FREEMAN HOMERED TO CENTER, B.J. UPTON SCORED; BRAVES 2-1
3RD INNING
JUSTIN UPTON HOMERED TO CENTER; BRAVES 3-1
EVAN GATTIS HOMERED TO LEFT; BRAVES 4-1
SCORING COMPOSITE: ATLANTA BRAVES 9, CINCINNATI REDS 5
PICK: If Runs are a premium for this game, Atlanta might be the one claiming them. The Reds have unfortunately faced good Atlanta pitching. It is shocking to see Atlanta starting rotation play so well with the loss of Brandon Beachy, Kris Medlen and Mike Minor. Mike Minor will return this season while Beachy and Medlen recover from the infamous Tommy John Surgery. Braves fans will bring the brooms and what will be the first in a long time against these Reds is sweep them. Braves 4-3
Sports And Life in General 