Monthly Archives: August 2013

Game 135 (Colorado v Cincinnati)

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Good evening and thanks for reading. Tonight, the Reds will play three against the mighty slumping Colorado Rockies, I only mentioned the slump because they were ranked #6 (https://sportsnutdumais.wordpress.com/2013/04/22/2013-mlb-regular-season-poll-2/), which happened in April (lol) and are now currently ranked #28 (which is #15 in the National League).

As for starting pitchers, Red send Bronson Arroyo, while Rockies deal with Jorge De La Rosa.

http://tinyurl.com/COL-v-CIN-08302013

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Prediction:

Bronson Arroyo: 5 1/3 IP, 8 H, 2 HR, 5 R, 3 BB & 2 SO

Jorge De La Rosa: 6 1/3 IP, 3 H, 2 HR, 3 R, 3 BB & 6 SO

Things to Consider for Tonight’s game:

  • When facing Bronson Arroyo, batters have a 38% chance of scoring a run in an inning, while Jorge De La Rosa batters have a 36% chance this season. Arroyo against Rockies is unfavorable with a 56% chance
  • Baserunners? Arroyo is allowing a .392 OBP to tonight’s batting order, batters hit .326
  • For the Rockies, switching pitchers may have been their best option. Jeff Manship has never faced the Reds while Jorge De La Rosa has, De La Rosa has a .182 BAA and a .289 OBP, he has only faced Phillips, Votto, Ludwick, Bruce and Hanigan, the other 4 batters (Choo, Frazier, Cozart and Arroyo) will need to be agressive tonight against De La Rosa
  • Last 10 games, Reds have only lost 1 game back (was 2.5 GB)
  • Sweep Rockies and Pirates sweep Cardinals? Reds will only be .5 GB from Cardinals
  • Enjoy tonight’s game!

Game 133 (St. Louis v Cincinnati)

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In today’s Game 133 post, I got two readers, the Optimistic and the Pessimistic. I’ll start with the pessimestic, wasn’t there something with “First is the Worst”?

Yes, last night’s game management was bad, but Mike Leake’s scouting report isn’t favorable after 76 pitches, or when you reach your 28th batter of the game (pitched to 27 last night). As a pessimistic, you can see why you show anger in last night’s game with the WPA.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SLN/SLN201308260.shtml#wpa

Now, my only point that is considered pessimistic is lack of scouting report, the scout usually determines what a batters cold zone are and pitches he doesn’t want to hit, yes, MLB pitchers prefer a pitch to hit like a 4-seam fastball which Allen Craig did to J.J. Hoover. Maybe I do have another one regarding K zone is that it wasn’t favorable last night.

Now to the optimistic side of Game 133, Reds have Mat Latos on the bump. As you know, 3 of the 4 wins against the Cardinals have come with Latos pitching, now you can call him a Cardinal Killer. Here is those three games:

June 8th: 7 IP, 8 H, 2 ER & 5 SO

April 29th: 6 IP, 5 H, 3 BB & 4 SO

April 8th: 6 IP, 4 H, 4 R, ER, BB & 5 SO

Now what is that ERA, WHIP and K/BB again? 1.42 ERA, 1.11 WHIP & 3.50 K/BB. Would you look at that, that’s a Cardinal killer right there. If those stats were to be tonight? Latos should pitch 6 2/3 IP, but those pessimistic fans don’t want the bullpen to screw things up. As for the bullpen, expect it because Latos has thrown no more than 7 innings against the Cardinals in his last 5 starts.

Ok, enough with stats to prove some point, here are tonight’s pitcher prediction stat line.

http://tinyurl.com/STL-v-CIN-08272013

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Prediction: 

Mat Latos: 5 2/3 IP, 8 H, 2 2B, HR, 4 R, 2 BB & 4 SO

Joe Kelly: 6 2/3 IP, 7 H, 2 2B, 2 R & 7 SO

  • Things to Consider
  1. Mat Latos has more PAs against Cardinals than Joe Kelly, at least 10X more.
  2. Latos has gotten this Cardinal batting order tonight out 61.43% of the time
  3. Hits and Walks? That has happened 36.6% of the time
  4. What about Doubles? 6.54%
  5. Home Runs? 3.27%
  6. What about Kelly? He has not faced Joey Votto or Devin Mesoraco and has faced tonight’s Reds about 2-3 times
  7. Can the Reds hit off Kelly? Likely, about 25%
  8. Which Pitcher is better at Busch? Latos or Kelly? Latos has a 0.75 ERA and Kelly has a 3.98, homefield doesn’t mean a thing.

Game 132 (St. Louis v Cincinnati)

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Big series, I’m sure you’re aware of that. Now in the 2010s, Cardinals have actually become a big factor. As of 2010, Reds only had one winning season series against the Cardinals, that would be 2011, look what happened in 2011. Now look at this season series, Cardinals lead 8-4, to clinch a season series in a division, you have to win 10.

Here is what the Reds need to do while being 2.5 back of 1st place, whom the Cardinals and Pirates both have right now. Reds and Cardinals have 7 games left, 5 Reds wins equates to a .5 game lead against the Cardinals, as a person who knows that the Reds don’t succeed at St. Louis 2 or even a sweep can help their cause to get those 5 wins against the Cardinals.

Tweet! Tweet!

http://tinyurl.com/STL-v-CIN-08262013

Game 4

Prediction:

Mike Leake: 5 2/3 IP, 9 H, 2 2B, HR, 3 R, BB & 3 SO

Tyler Lyons: 5 2/3 IP, 9 H, 4 2B, 4 HR, 5 R, 4 SO, 4 HBP & 4 SF

*Tyler Lyons has not faced Todd Frazier, Ryan Ludwick and Mike Leake and has pitched against the Reds once.

Ranking #19

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Performance Grades

  • 1-6 A
  • 7-12 B
  • 13-18 C
  • 19-24 D
  • 25-30 F
  1. DETROIT (1)
  2. PITTSBURGH (4)
  3. TEXAS (2)
  4. BOSTON (3)
  5. LOS ANGELES DODGERS (7)
  6. ST. LOUIS (6)
  7. CLEVELAND (10)
  8. KANSAS CITY (5)
  9. CINCINNATI (9)
  10. ATLANTA (8)
  11. ARIZONA (11)
  12. BALTIMORE (12)
  13. OAKLAND (13)
  14. TAMPA BAY (16)
  15. NEW YORK YANKEES (14)
  16. WASHINGTON (20)
  17. LOS ANGELES ANGELS (18)
  18. TORONTO (15)
  19. NEW YORK METS (17)
  20. PHILADELPHIA (21)
  21. SAN FRANCISCO (19)
  22. SEATTLE (22)
  23. MINNESOTA (23)
  24. SAN DIEGO (24)
  25. MILWAUKEE (27)
  26. CHICAGO CUBS (26)
  27. MIAMI (25)
  28. COLORADO (28)
  29. CHICAGO WHITE SOX (29)
  30. HOUSTON (30)

ON THE RISE

PITTSBURGH 2
LOS ANGELES DODGERS 2
CLEVELAND 3
TAMPA BAY 2
WASHINGTON 4
LOS ANGELES ANGELS 1
PHILADELPHIA 1
MILWAUKEE 2
MIAMI 2

ON THE DECLINE

TEXAS -1
BOSTON -1
KANSAS CITY -3
ATLANTA -2
NEW YORK YANKEES -1
TORONTO -3
NEW YORK METS -2
SAN FRANCISCO -2

NO CHANGE, STAYS THE SAME

DETROIT 0
ST. LOUIS 0
CINCINNATI 0
ARIZONA 0
BALTIMORE 0
OAKLAND 0
SEATTLE 0
MINNESOTA 0
SAN DIEGO 0
CHICAGO CUBS 0
COLORADO 0
CHICAGO WHITE SOX 0
HOUSTON 0

Game 131 (Cincinnati v Milwaukee)

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I guess two words from yesterday’s blog made my point, and winning will keep the Reds in the NL Central race. Now if my math is right, the Reds today could have been 1.5 back from first place if they had won on Friday, now they remain 2.5 back with 1st place tie of Pittsburgh and St. Louis. I think being 1.5 back today would be great, especially when heading to St. Louis where I don’t even know the last time they’ve won a series at Busch Stadium in the past 7 years. 

http://tinyurl.com/CIN-v-MIL-08252013

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Prediction: 

Marco Estrada: 5 1/3 IP, 9 H, 2 2B, 3 HR, 7 R, 2 BB & 3 SO

Greg Reynolds: Has faced only one Brewer, Tom Gorzelanny, who is not playing today

Game 128 (Cincinnati v Milwaukee)

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Back at it again, been busy moving family members back to college (still a college student myself), but nonetheless, the Reds are back for another series in Cincinnati and will be facing the Milwaukee Brewers for 3 games before flying out to St. Louis. Tonight’s pitchers are Yavani Gallardo of the Milwaukee Brewers and Homer Bailey for the Reds. 

http://tinyurl.com/CIN-v-MIL-08232013

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Prediction:

Yavani Gallardo: 5 2/3 IP, 7 H, 2 2B, HR, 4 R, 3 BB & 3 SO

Homer Bailey: 6 IP, 6 H, 2B, HR, 3 R, 2 BB & 4 SO

Game 127 (Cincinnati v Arizona)

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Forgot to mention this in the Game 126 blog, Patrick Corbin is really good against the Reds offense, sorry for not mentioning that. Either way, Reds are back on the rebound and will be facing Brandon McCarthy tonight while Mike Leake faces the opposition. McCarthy doesn’t have a track record against the Reds, but has faced some personal Reds ie Shin-Soo Choo and Cesar Izturis. 

http://tinyurl.com/CIN-v-ARZ-08212013

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Prediction:

Brandon McCarthy: Debut against the Reds lineup

Mike Leake: 6 1/3 IP, 8 H, 2B, HR, 4 R, BB & SO

*McCarthy last 7 starts have averaged 6 1/3 IP, 6 H, 2 R (EARNED), 2 BB & 3 SO. McCarthy will likely pitch 6 2/3 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 4 SO & HR tonight.

Game 125 (Cincinnati v Arizona)

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Good afternoon, today the Reds got a chance to blow the 3rd wild card team out of the Race. As of now, the Reds are the 2nd wild card and only 1.5 games back for the top wild card spot and have a 5 game cushion on the Diamondbacks for the 2nd wild card spot. For what it’s worth, the Reds are only 2.5 games back from 1st place, it would be nice to see the San Diego Padres sweep the Pittsburgh Pirates, but don’t forget about the St. Louis Cardinals, only 1 game back from 1st and facing the Brewers this week, maybe the Brewers can sweep the Cardinals as well (wishful thinking).

http://bit.ly/1d0vxty

On to Game 125

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Prediction:

Randall Delgado: 5 2/3 IP, 6 H, 2 2B, HR, 3 R, 3 BB & 5 SO

Bronson Arroyo: 5 1/3 IP, 8 H, 2 2B, HR, 4 R, 2 BB & SO