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Game 133 (St. Louis v Cincinnati)

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In today’s Game 133 post, I got two readers, the Optimistic and the Pessimistic. I’ll start with the pessimestic, wasn’t there something with “First is the Worst”?

Yes, last night’s game management was bad, but Mike Leake’s scouting report isn’t favorable after 76 pitches, or when you reach your 28th batter of the game (pitched to 27 last night). As a pessimistic, you can see why you show anger in last night’s game with the WPA.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SLN/SLN201308260.shtml#wpa

Now, my only point that is considered pessimistic is lack of scouting report, the scout usually determines what a batters cold zone are and pitches he doesn’t want to hit, yes, MLB pitchers prefer a pitch to hit like a 4-seam fastball which Allen Craig did to J.J. Hoover. Maybe I do have another one regarding K zone is that it wasn’t favorable last night.

Now to the optimistic side of Game 133, Reds have Mat Latos on the bump. As you know, 3 of the 4 wins against the Cardinals have come with Latos pitching, now you can call him a Cardinal Killer. Here is those three games:

June 8th: 7 IP, 8 H, 2 ER & 5 SO

April 29th: 6 IP, 5 H, 3 BB & 4 SO

April 8th: 6 IP, 4 H, 4 R, ER, BB & 5 SO

Now what is that ERA, WHIP and K/BB again? 1.42 ERA, 1.11 WHIP & 3.50 K/BB. Would you look at that, that’s a Cardinal killer right there. If those stats were to be tonight? Latos should pitch 6 2/3 IP, but those pessimistic fans don’t want the bullpen to screw things up. As for the bullpen, expect it because Latos has thrown no more than 7 innings against the Cardinals in his last 5 starts.

Ok, enough with stats to prove some point, here are tonight’s pitcher prediction stat line.

http://tinyurl.com/STL-v-CIN-08272013

Image

Prediction: 

Mat Latos: 5 2/3 IP, 8 H, 2 2B, HR, 4 R, 2 BB & 4 SO

Joe Kelly: 6 2/3 IP, 7 H, 2 2B, 2 R & 7 SO

  • Things to Consider
  1. Mat Latos has more PAs against Cardinals than Joe Kelly, at least 10X more.
  2. Latos has gotten this Cardinal batting order tonight out 61.43% of the time
  3. Hits and Walks? That has happened 36.6% of the time
  4. What about Doubles? 6.54%
  5. Home Runs? 3.27%
  6. What about Kelly? He has not faced Joey Votto or Devin Mesoraco and has faced tonight’s Reds about 2-3 times
  7. Can the Reds hit off Kelly? Likely, about 25%
  8. Which Pitcher is better at Busch? Latos or Kelly? Latos has a 0.75 ERA and Kelly has a 3.98, homefield doesn’t mean a thing.