The most anticipated matchup for the Cincinnati Reds since October 1st, 2013. Go back to that October day, the Pittsburgh Pirates were playing in their first postseason game for the first time in 21 years. I joked that 3 months in my life the Pirates were in the playoffs, the manager was Jim Leyland and Barry Bonds was on the Pirates. Fast forward to 2013, the manager is Clint Hurdle and Andrew McCutchen is the MVP for the Pirates.
Things that changed from that October day is that the Reds lose Shin-Soo Choo and Bronson Arroyo while the Pirates lost AJ Burnett to free agency. These two teams are pretty much balanced in 2014 and look to return to postseason baseball in October.
Game 1 Starters
RODRIGUEZ’S LAST 7
- 36.1 IP/40 H/17 R/8 BB/30 SO/6 HR
- BAA .268/ERA 4.21/WHIP 1.32
- GRADE: 79.51% (C)
- RATES: 25.48% H/10.83% R/5.10% BB/19.11% SO/3.82% HR
- FIRST 27 RATE: 7 H/3 R/BB/5 SO/HR
- PER 9: 9.91 H/3.83 R/1.98/7.43 SO/1.49 HR
RODRIGUEZ VS. CINCINNATI
- 175.1 IP/171 H/93 R/83 ER/63 BB/174 SO/26 HR
- BAA .245/ERA 4.26/WHIP 1.33
- GRADE: 79.28% (C)
- RATES: 22.65% H/12.32% R/8.34% BB/23.05% SO/3.44% HR
- FIRST 27 RATE: 6 H/3 R/2 BB/6 SO/HR
- PER 9: 8.78/4.89 R/3.23 BB/8.93 SO/1.33 HR
RODRIGUEZ AT GREAT AMERICAN BALLPARK
- 78.1 IP/73 H/41 R/34 ER/28 BB/72 SO/12 HR
- BAA .237/ERA 3.91/WHIP 1.29
- GRADE: 80.76%
- RATES: 22.05% H/12.39% R/8.46% BB/21.75% SO/3.63% HR
- FIRST 27 RATE: 6 H/3 R/2 BB/6 SO/HR
- PER 9: 8.39 H/5.05 R/3.22 BB/8.27 SO/1.38 HR
BAILEY’S LAST 7
- 41 IP/36 H/21 R/19 ER/18 BB/34 SO/5 HR
- BAA .226/ERA 4.17/WHIP 1.32
- GRADE: 79.67% (C)
- RATES: 20.11% H/11.73% R/10.06% BB/18.99% SO/2.79% HR
- FIRST 27 RATE: 5 H/3 R/3 BB/5 SO/HR
- PER 9: 7.90 H/5.25 R/3.95 BB/7.46 SO/1.10 HR
BAILEY VS. PITTSBURGH
- 102 IP/84 H/35 R/33 ER/32 BB/90 SO/9 HR
- BAA .215/ERA 2.91/WHIP 1.14
- GRADE: 85.00% (B)
- RATES: 20.19% H/8.41% R/7.69% BB/21.63% SO/2.16% HR
- FIRST 27 RATE: 5 H/2 R/2 BB/6 SO/HR
- PER 9: 7.41 H/3.75 R/2.82 BB/7.94 SO/0.79 HR
BAILEY AT GREAT AMERICAN BALLPARK
- 445 IP/466 H/248 R/236 ER/158 BB/396 SO/60 HR
- BAA .259/ERA 4.77/WHIP 1.40
- GRADE: 77.13% (C)
- RATES: 24.11% H/12.83% R/8.17% BB/20.49% SO/3.10% HR
- FIRST 27 RATE: 7 H/3 R/2 BB/6 SO/HR
- PER 9: 9.42 H/4.79 R/3.20 BB/8.01 SO/1.21 HR
PREDICTION
WANDY RODRIGUEZ: 7.1 IP/6 H/3 R/2 BB/6 SO/HR
HOMER BAILEY: 7.1 IP/6 H/3 R/2 BB/6 SO/HR
PICK: Both Wandy Rodriguez and Homer Bailey have had evenly matched start in the last 7 starts, but Bailey has been performing against better teams above in my rankings. Rodriguez has his struggles against the Reds, even before he was a Pittsburgh Pirate. Bailey knows this Pirates lineup and has dominated in his MLB tenure. Homefield advantage doesn’t help Bailey, but Wandy Rodriguez knows how to pitch at Great American Ballpark. Both will get No Decision and the Pirates should win Game 1 with a score of 5-4.
