Game 3 (St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds)

TEAM THUMB

Watched the whole thing, even if there was a rain delay to start the game. It’s baseball and it’s exciting.

Game 2 promised the future of pitching, hard fastball throwers and wicked control. Both starting pitchers from Games 1 and 2 beat my run prediction. Game 2 featured what I called “The Battle of 52’s”, Tony Cingrani’s and Michael Wacha’s respective numbers. Both Cingrani and Wacha did not allow a run and pitched up to 7 innings of baseball. It looks like a pennant race in this series and the beauty of this series is that there is one more game, pending on today’s weather.

SCORING PLAYS

BOTTOM 9th

  • Chris Heisey singled to Left center, Ryan Ludwick scored
  • REDS 1-0

Composite Score for St. Louis at Cincinnati, Cardinals 1, Reds 1


Recap of Game 2 Pitchers

Michael Wacha

Game 2 Numbers

  • 6.2 IP/3 H/BB/7 SO
  • BAA .130/ERA 0.00/WHIP 0.60
  • Per 9 numbers:  4.05 H/1.35 BB/9.45 SO
  • GRADE: 97.78% (A)
  • RATES: 11.54% H/3.85% BB/26.92% K

Game 1 Prediction

  • 8 IP/5 H/R/2 BB/6 SO/HR
  • BAA .172/ERA 1.13 /WHIP .875
  • Per 9 numbers:  5.63 H/1.13 R/2.25 BB/6.75 SO/1.13 HR
  • GRADE: 92.57% (A)

CARDINALS REPORT CARD

ADAM WAINWRIGHT: 96.30% (A)(GAME 1)

MICHAEL WACHA: 97.78% (A)(GAME 2)

BULLPEN: 98.15% (A)(GAME 1)/77.78% (C)(GAME 2)/87.18% (B)(OVERALL)

Tony Cingrani

Game 2 Numbers

  • 7 IP/2 H/2 BB/9 SO
  • BAA .087/ERA 0.00/WHIP 0.57
  • Per 9 Numbers: 2.57 H/2.57 BB/9 SO/1.29 HR
  • GRADE: 97.88% (A)
  • RATES: 8.33% H/8.33% BB/37.50% SO

Game 2 Prediction

  • 7.2 IP/5 H/2 R/3 BB/8 SO/HR
  • BAA .179/ERA 2.35/WHIP 1.04
  • Per 9 numbers: 5.87 H/2.35 R/3.52 BB/9.39 SO/1.17 HR
  • GRADE: 87.44% (B)

REDS REPORT CARD

JOHNNY CUETO: 93.12% (A)(GAME 1)

TONY CINGRANI: 97.88% (A)

BULLPEN: 94.44% (A)(GAME 1)/96.30% (A)(GAME 2)/95.37% (A)(OVERALL)


Our Game 3 Pitchers

Lance Lynn

Coming off of huge criticism for his pitching late in the 2013 season, Lance Lynn is back in the starting role. Lynn is not part of the sophomore slump as he has been around in the MLB for 4 seasons, which doesn’t seem that long. Lynn has had games against Cincinnati where he had no run support and loss or had the run support and won. Lynn and Great American Ballpark don’t get along so well. The ball won’t carry far in today’s forecast so I expect a low scoring affair for Lynn.

Lance Lynn’s numbers

LYNN’S LAST 7

  • 40.2 IP/45 H/19 R/18 ER/15 BB/45 SO/5 HR
  • BAA .269/ERA 3.98/WHIP 1.48
  • GRADE: 79.78% (C)
  • RATES: 25.42% H/10.73% R/8.47% BB/25.42% SO/2.82% HR
  • LYNN’S FIRST 27 RATE:7.1 IP/7 H/2 BB/7 SO/HR

LYNN VS. CINCINNATI

  • 38 IP/34 H/17 R/14 BB/47 SO/5 HR
  • BAA .230/ERA 4.03/WHIP 1.26
  • GRADE: 80.41% (B)
  • RATES: 21.25% H/10.63% R/7.91% BB/29.38% SO/3.13% HR
  • LYNN’S FIRST 27 RATE: 7.1 IP/3 H/2 BB/8 SO/HR

LYNN AT GREAT AMERICAN BALLPARK

  • 23 IP/23 H/15 R/11 BB/28 SO/5 HR
  • BAA .250/ERA 5.87/WHIP 1.48
  • GRADE: 72.79% (C)
  • RATES: 22.55%H/14.71%R/10.78%BB/27.45%SO/4.90%HR
  • LYNN’S FIRST 27 RATE: 6.2 IP/6 H/3 BB/7 SO

Homer Bailey

Fresh out of his new 6 year contract, Homer Bailey will pitch which he hopes to be another successful season. Bailey has improved rates that makes a pitcher’s résumé look good, minimum walk and maximum strikeouts. One struggle for Bailey and something that isn’t necessary to promote in today’s game is the W-L, it is misleading and has had suffered with pitchers that don’t give up lots of runs. I expect Bailey to produce like he has in his last 7 starts.

Homer Bailey’s Numbers

BAILEY’S LAST 7

  • 45 IP/31 H/16 R/14 ER/17 BB/38 SO/4 HR
  • BAA .187/ERA 2.80/WHIP 1.07
  • GRADE: 85.68% (B)
  • RATES: 17.13% H/8.84%R/9.39%BB/20.99%SO/2.21%HR
  • BAILEY’S FIRST 27 RATE: 7.2 IP/5 H/3R/3 BB/6 SO/HR

BAILEY VS. ST. LOUIS

  • 93 IP/102 H/53 R/49 ER/31 BB/69 SO/15 HR
  • BAA .268/ERA 4.74/WHIP 1.43
  • GRADE: 77.14% (C)
  • RATES: 25.44% H/13.22% R/7.73% BB/17.21%SO/3.74% HR
  • BAILEY’S FIRST 27 RATE: 7 IP/7 H/4R/4 BB/5 SO/HR

BAILEY AT GREAT AMERICAN BALLPARK

  • 440.2 IP/459 H/244R/232 ER/155 BB/393 SO/59 HR
  • BAA .258/ERA 4.74/WHIP 1.39
  • GRADE: 77.29% (C)
  • RATES: 24.02% H/12.77% R/8.11% BB/20.57% SO/3.09% HR
  • BAILEY’S FIRST 27 RATE: 7 IP/6 H/3 R/2 BB/6 SO/HR

GAME 3

PREDICTION:

LANCE LYNN: 7.1 IP/6 H/3 R/2 BB/7 SO/HR

HOMER BAILEY: 7 IP/6 H/3 R/2 BB/5 SO/HR

PICK: After looking at the two games, Johnny Cueto’s cutter pitch to Yadier Molina was a fluke. The Reds are really keying their pitches on the Cardinals and not giving them easy pitches to hit. For the Reds, they face one of the worst pitchers to pitch at Great American Ballpark in Lance Lynn, allows run 14.71% of the time, so 7:1 odds that he will allow a run tomorrow at GABP. As for Bailey, his last 7 was good and was good enough to pitch the wild card game in 2013, but it didn’t happen. If the game is still in play with rain expected in the forecast, Reds will take the series.

 

Great American Ballpark

 

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