It’s that time of the year again, baseball.
For those that don’t my SPORTS INSIGHTS blog, I’m a prediction guru. For those that will follow, they know I predict starting pitcher lines because its about frequencies. Decisions have to be made and how a pitcher pitches in time of year determines a lot.
Today, the St. Louis Cardinals, the National League Champion, are in Cincinnati to face a Reds team that is led by new manager, Bryan Price. The Opening Day matchup are two aces who carry veteran leadership in the starting rotation. Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright will lead the starting rotation with a bunch of young minds who had impressive 2013 seasons. Reds pitcher Johnny Cueto leads a group that has been in the rotation for more than two seasons, the experience is good for the Reds.
The Cardinals as a team are favored to win the National League Central and to win it by 10 or more games. Reds, on the other hand, struggled to make big name signings this offseason and will have to play with what they have. Reds big season long issue is offense, lost Shin-Soo Choo to free agency and the new center fielder, Billy Hamilton, will have to pick up the slack. If Hamilton is at the league level of OBP, the offense as a whole will not miss Choo.
On to the Opening Day Starters
Adam Wainwright numbers.
WAINWRIGHT’S LAST 7
- 45 IP/36 H/15 R/ER/4 BB/44 SO/2 HR
- BAA .211/ERA 3.00/WHIP 0.89
- GRADE: 85.60% (B)=1-(ERA+WHIP)/27
- RATES: 19.89% H/8.29% R/2.21% BB/24.31% SO/1.10% HR
- WAINWRIGHT’S FIRST 27 RATE: 7.2 IP/5 H/2 R/BB/7 SO
WAINWRIGHT VS. CINCINNATI
- 93.1 IP/98 H/57 R (53 ER)/28 BB/68 SO/17 HR
- BAA .259/ERA 5.11/WHIP 1.35
- GRADE: 76.07% (C)
- RATES: 24.26% H/14.11% R/15.47% BB/16.83% SO/4.21% HR
- WAINWRIGHT’S FIRST 27 RATE: 7 IP/7 H/4 R/4 BB/5 SO/HR
WAINWRIGHT AT GREAT AMERICAN BALLPARK
- 59 IP/55 H/30 R/ER/16 BB/41 SO/9 HR
- BAA .237/ERA 4.58/WHIP 1.20
- GRADE: 78.59% (C)
- RATES: 22.27% H/12.15% R/6.48% BB/16.60% SO/3.64% HR
- WAINWRIGHT’S FIRST 27 RATES: 7 IP/6 H/3 R/2 BB/4 SO/HR
Johnny Cueto’s numbers.
CUETO’S LAST 7
- 22.1 IP/15 H/ 8 R/ER/10 BB/26 SO/3 HR
- BAA .183/ERA 3.22/WHIP 1.12
- GRADE: 83.91% (B)
- RATES: 9.93% H/5.30% R/6.62% BB/17.22% SO/1.99% HR
- CUETO’S FIRST 27 RATE: 7.2 IP/3 H/R/2 BB/5 SO/HR
CUETO VS. ST. LOUIS
- 83 IP/89 H/43 ER/R/28 BB/39 SO/9 HR
- BAA .263/ERA 4.66/WHIP 1.41
- GRADE: 77.51% (C)
- RATES: 24.79% H/11.98% R/7.80% BB/10.86% SO/2.51% HR
- CUETO’S FIRST 27 RATE: 7 IP/7 H/3 R/2 BB/3 SO/HR
CUETO AT GREAT AMERICAN BALLPARK
- 454.1 IP/418 H/187 R (171 ER)/119 BB/381 SO/52 HR
- BAA .235/ERA 3.39/WHIP 1.18
- GRADE: 83.08% (B)
- RATES: 22.28% H/9.97% R/6.34% BB/20.31% SO/2.77% HR
- CUETO’S FIRST 27 RATE: 7.1 IP/6 H/3 R/2 BB/5 SO/HR
ADAM WAINWRIGHT: 7.1 IP/6 H/3 R/2 BB/4 SO/2 HR
JOHNNY CUETO: 7.1 IP/5 H/3 R/2 BB/5 SO/HR
If prediction holds, then the bullpen that is currently in good shape wins. That bullpen right now are the St. Louis Cardinals. Offensively, the Cardinals look good on paper, but that talk is now over with the off-season moves they’ve made.
SCORING THREATS FOR TODAY’S GAME
- MATT HOLLIDAY
- YADIER MOLINA
- JON JAY
- JHONNY PERALTA
- JAY BRUCE
- RYAN LUDWICK
- TODD FRAZIER
- CHRIS HEISEY