ALCS Game 4 (Detroit v Boston)

Red Sox-Tigers

When two pitchers duel out against each other, you expect low scores. Low scores is something I expected in Game 3. The only thing I did not expect was Mike Napoli to hit a Solo Home Run against Justin Verlander. The prediction I gave to Verlander.

Justin Verlander: 6.1 IP, 5 H, 2B, HR, 2 R, 3 BB, 7 SO & SF

Close enough. Verlander did better than expected.

Justin Verlander, Game 3: 8 IP, 4 H, R, BB & 10 SO

What surprised is how John Lackey managed to stay content with Detroit hitters. Detroit had many chances to score, make it 7 chances. Detroit had RISP 7 times and managed to get nothing out of it. The Tigers LOB was 7, so there was a man either on 2nd or 3rd base, but they couldn’t pull through. Overall, Game 3 was a nice duel with Lackey and Verlander.

Time to look back at our Game 3 numbers.

John Lackey

Lackey’s 2013 game at Comerica Park.

  • 7 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, BB & 5 SO
  • BAA .250, ERA 2.57 & 1.14 WHIP
  • Per 9 numbers: 9 H, 1.29 BB, 6.43 K. K/BB is 5.
  • GRADE: 79.37% (C)
  • Rates: 25% H, 7.14% R, 3.57% BB, 17.86% K

Lackey’s Game 3 numbers.

  • 6.2 IP, 4 H & 8 SO
  • BAA .167 & WHIP 0.60
  • Per 9 numbers: 5.4 H, 10.8 K.
  • GRADE: 96.67% (A)
  • Rates: 16.67% H, 33.33% K

Lackey had a better game than his June 20th start.

RED SOX POSTSEASON REPORT CARD:

JON LESTER: 82.61% (B) (Division)/85.96% (B) (League Championship)

JOHN LACKEY: 52.08% (F) (Division)/96.67% (A) (League Championship)

CLAY BUCHHOLZ: 65.74% (D) (Division)/48.04% (F) (League Championship)

JAKE PEAVY: 86.27% (B) (Division)

BULLPEN: 86.36% (B) (Division)/ 95.36% (A) (League Championship)

Justin Verlander

Verlander has faced the Red Sox at Comerica Park this seson. That game.

  • 5 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 BB & 4 SO
  • BAA .318, ERA 7.20 & 2.00 WHIP
  • Per 9 numbers: 12.6 H, 5.4 BB, 7.2 K. K/BB is 1.33
  • GRADE: 48.89% (F)
  • Rates: 26.92% H, 15.38% R, 11.54% BB, 15.38% K

Verlander’s Game 3 numbers.

  • 8 IP, 4 H, ER, BB, 10 SO & HR
  • BAA .143, ERA 1.13 & WHIP 0.63
  • Per 9 numbers: 4.5 H, 1.13 BB, 11.25 K, 1.13 HR. K/BB is 10
  • GRADE: 90.28% (A)
  • Rates: 13.79% H, 3.45% R,BB & HR, 34.48% K

Verlander is likewise to Lackey, better results in the Postseason.

TIGERS POSTSEASON REPORT CARD:

MAX SCHERZER: 77.16% (C) (Division)/89.68% (B) (League Championship)

JUSTIN VERLANDER: 97.04% (A) (Division)/90.28% (A) (League Championship)

ANIBAL SANCHEZ: 29.49% (F) (Division)/94.44% (A) (League Championship)

DOUG FISTER: 67.59% (D) (Division)

BULLPEN: 80.48% (B) (Division)/52.22% (F) (League Championship)

Jake Peavy

Jake Peavy, will be making his first start in a League Championship Series. Peavy was with the San Diego Padres in the 2005 and 2006 National League Division Series, but struggled against the St. Louis Cardinals in both years. Those two appearances with the Padres would be the last time he would be in the playoffs. Peavy was associated with the Padres and Chicago White Sox before being traded to Boston at the 2013 Trade Deadline.

Peavy has pitched in the 2013 Postseason. Game 4 against the Tampa Bay Rays. Those ALDS numbers.

  • 5.2 IP, 5 H, ER & 3 SO
  • BAA .227, ERA 1.59 & WHIP 0.88
  • Per 9 numbers: 7.94 H, 4.76 K.
  • GRADE: 86.27% (B)
  • Rates: 25% H, 5% R, 15% K

Peavy has only pitched at Comerica Park 5 times. Those career numbers at Comerica.

  • 34.2 IP, 30 H, 18 R (16 ER), 9 BB, 32 SO & 4 HR
  • BAA .224, ERA 4.15 & 1.13 WHIP
  • Per 9 numbers: 7.79 H, 2.34 BB, 8.31 K, 1.04 HR. K/BB IS 3.56.
  • GRADE: 70.67% (C)
  • Rates: 20.98% H, 12.59% R, 6.29% BB, 22.38% K, 2.80% HR

Peavy did not pitch a Game at Comerica Park this season. Peavy’s pitching WAR with the Red Sox is 0.6, which is 3.70% of Red Sox pitching.

Doug Fister

Doug Fister returns to the League Championship Series, it will be his second LCS. Fister has played his LCS games with the Detroit Tigers and it will be his third game and start. The LCS numbers.

  • 13.2 IP, 13 H, 2 ER, 4 BB & 8 SO
  • BAA .241, ERA 1.32 & 1.24 WHIP
  • Per 9 numbers: 8.56 H, 2.63 BB, 5.27 K. K/BB is 2
  • GRADE: 85.77% (B)
  • Rates: 23.21% H, 3.57% R, 7.14% BB, 14.29% K.

Fister has appeared in the 2013 Postseason. Game 4 of the American League Division Series. The numbers for the ALDS against the Oakland Athletics

  • 6 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, BB, SO & HR
  • BAA .280, ERA 4.50 & WHIP 1.33
  • Per 9 numbers: 10.5 H, 1.5 BB, 1.5 K, 1.5 HR. K/BB is 1
  • GRADE: 67.59% (D)
  • Rates: 28% H, 12% R, 4% BB, K & HR

Fister has pitched at Comerica Park 35 times in his career. Those career numbers at Comerica.

  • 232 IP, 226 H, 87 R (82 ER), 44 BB, 180 SO & 13 HR
  • BAA .245, ERA 3.18 & 1.16 WHIP
  • Per 9 numbers: 8.77 H, 1.71 BB, 6.98 K, 0.5 HR. K/BB is 4.09.
  • GRADE: 75.86% (C)
  • Rates: 23.76% H, 9.15% R, 4.63% BB, 18.93% K, 1.37% HR

Fister has faced the Red Sox at Comerica Park. That game.

  • 3.1 IP, 11 H, 6 ER, BB & HR
  • BAA .524, ERA 16.20 & WHIP 3.60
  • Per 9 numbers: 29.7 H, 2.7 BB, 2.7 HR.
  • GRADE: -10.00% (F), basically all negative grades end up being a 0.00% (F)
  • Rates: 52.38% H, 28.57% R, 4.76% BB & HR

Fister has a pitching WAR of 4.1, which is 14.19% of Tigers pitching.

—————

Which pitcher has the EDGE in tonight’s game?

  • Jake Peavy: Hits, Runs, Walks, Home runs
  • Doug Fister: Strikeouts

Peavy, who is 32 years, old, has more baseball playing days ahead of him. The current commitment he has with the Red Sox is $29 for 2013 and 2014. In 2015, he has a unique player option. They’re 2 options on the option, 400 IP in 2013 and 2014, including 190 in 2014 or is not on the disabled list at the end of the 2014 season. Peavy threw 144.2 innings in 2013 and throwing 255.1 innings (has thrown 5.2 innings in 2013 Postseason) is going to be a long haul. The best option for Peavy is to not be on the Disabled list at the end of the 2014 season. If Peavy accepts his option in 2015, he will make $15 million.

Peavy’s 2013 season numbers.

  • 144.2 IP, 130 H, 70 R (67 ER), 36 BB, 121 SO & 20 HR
  • BAA .230, ERA 4.17 & WHIP 1.15
  • Per 9 numbers: 8.09 H, 2.24 BB, 7.53 K, 1.24 HR. K/BB is 3.36
  • GRADE: 70.47% (C)
  • Rates: 22.03% H, 11.86% R, 6.10% BB, 20.51% K, 3.39% HR

Fister, who is 29 years old, was acquired in a trade with the Seattle Mariners at the 2011 Trade Deadline. Fister will be 2nd year arbitration eligible next season. Fister becomes a free agent in 2016. Fister in his first year of arbitration made $4 million. Since Fister got a one year arbitration, there could be a possibility that he gets 2 year $10.882 million agreement, but that will be determined once again by his agent (PSI Sports Management) and the Tigers Front office.

Fister’s 2013 season numbers.

  • 208.2 IP, 229 H, 91 R (85 ER), 44 BB, 159 SO & 14 HR
  • BAA .268, ERA 3.67 & 1.31 WHIP
  • Per 9 numbers: 9.88 H, 1.9 BB, 6.86 K, 0.6 HR. K/BB is 3.61
  • GRADE: 72.36% (C)
  • Rates: 25.99% H, 10.33% R, 4.99% BB, 18.05% K, 1.59% HR

ALCS GAME 4 PREVIEW

Peavy-Fister

Prediction:

Jake Peavy: 6 IP, 7 H, 2B, HR, 4 R, 2 BB & 6 SO

Doug Fister: 5.2 IP, 7 H, 2 2B, 3 R, 3 BB & 3 SO

Which offense bat(s) should Peavy and Fister be concerned for?

  • Peavy: Torii Hunter, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and Austin Jackson
  • Fister: Jacoby Ellsbury, Shane Victorino, Daniel Nava, Jarrod Saltamacchia and Will Middlebrooks

PICK: Detroit in Game 4

Comerica Park

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s