NLDS Game 3 (Pittsburgh v St. Louis)

NLDS (STL-PIT)

After 18 innings of baseball in St. Louis, the Bucs have tied the series and bringing it back to Pittsburgh. After the humuliating loss of Game 1, Pittsburgh returned the favor and put the beatdown on the Cardinals. Lance Lynn was favored to start Game 2 for his strong September and record at Busch Stadium.

It was a bad game, I made four bad pitches for four extra-base hits. When I made a mistake with the fastball, they were ready for it.

Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals pitcher.

Game 2 Numbers of Lynn and Cole.

Lance Lynn

Lance Lynn disappointed, especially when it was at his home ballpark.  The numbers at Busch this season.

  • 102 IP, 86 H, 33 R (32 ER), 34 BB, 99 SO & 3 HR
  • BAA .219, ERA 2.82 and WHIP 1.18
  • Per 9 numbers, 7.59 H, 3 BB, 8.74 K, 0.26 HR. K/BB is 2.91
  • GRADE: 77.78% (C)
  • Rates: 20.77% H, 7.97% R, 8.21% BB, 23.91% K, 0.72% HR

Lance Lynn on Friday

  • 4.1 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 6 SO & HR
  • BAA .350, 10.38 ERA and WHIP 2.31
  • Per 9 numbers, 14.54 H, 6.23 BB, 12.46 K, 2.08 HR. K/BB is 2.00.
  • GRADE: 29.49% (F)
  • Rates: 29.17% H, 20.83% R, 12.50% BB, 25.00% K, 4.17% HR

Gerrit Cole

Cole made his debut against the Cardinals, and did not disappoint. Friday’s numbers.

  • 6 IP, 2 H, ER, BB, 5 SO & HR
  • BAA .100, ERA 1.50 and 0.50 WHIP
  • Per 9 numbers, 3.00 H, 1.50 BB, 7.50 K, 1.50 HR. K/BB is 5.00
  • GRADE: 88.89%
  • Rates: 9.52% H, 4.76% R, 4.76% BB, 23.81% K, 4.76% HR

Expect this to be Game 5 starters (if necessary).

REPORT CARD:

  • A.J. BURNETT: -102.78% (F)
  • ADAM WAINWRIGHT: 90.48% (A)
  • GERRIT COLE: 88.89% (B)
  • LANCE LYNN: 29.49% (F)
  • PIRATES BULLPEN: 94.44% (A)
  • CARDINALS BULLPEN: 87.50% (B)

Joe Kelly

Now to another matchup where Pittsburgh might have the edge, all thanks to Francisco Liriano’s PNC Park numbers. To duel with Liriano, Cardinals will choose Joe Kelly.

Joe Kelly returns to the postseason. Kelly has appeared in the NLDS and NLCS, all of it happened in 2012. Kelly’s NLDS numbers: 3 games, 3.2 IP, 0.00 ERA and .273 WHIP. Kelly only appeared in bullpen, but will be starting his first postseason game today.

For Joe Kelly, his career numbers at PNC park numbers are good. Good being 2-1, 2.84 ERA and 1.316 WHIP good. Kelly has pitched 4 games at PNC park.

Kelly in 2013 has pitched at PNC park three times and has started two of those games. Basic line of 2-0, 0.64 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Kelly’s cumulative numbers at PNC park.

  • 14 IP, 8 H, ER, 6 BB & 10 SO
  • BAA .160, 0.64 ERA and WHIP 1.00
  • Per 9 numbers: 5.14 H, 3.86 BB, 6.43 K. K/BB is 1.67
  • GRADE: 90.87% (A)
  • Rates: 14.29% H, 1.79% R, 10.71% BB, 17.86% K.

Francisco Liriano

Back from his Wild-Card start, Francisco Liriano looks to beat the Cardinals once again at PNC Park. Liriano has faced the Cardinals twice at PNC Park and won both games. The numbers against the 2013 Cardinals at PNC.

  • 15 IP, 6 H, ER, 4 BB & 14 SO
  • BAA .118, ERA 0.60 and WHIP 0.67
  • Per 9 numbers, 3.60 H, 2.40 BB, 8.40 K
  • GRADE: 92.96% (A)
  • Rates: 11.76% H, 1.96% R, 7.84% BB, 27.45% K

Which pitcher has the Edge in this game?

Joe Kelly: Runs

Francisco Liriano: Hits, Walks, Strikeouts

EVEN: Home runs

Liriano has been a dominant force for the Pirates, pitching 161 Innings and striking out 163 this season. The season he has had grades to a 76.43% (C), above average for most starting pitching. Liriano had a BAA of .217, ERA of 3.02 and a 1.22 WHIP. The rates are decent as well this season for him, 21.72% (H), 8.75% (R), 10.21% (BB), 26.42% (K), 1.46% (HR). The Per 9, 7.49 H, 3.52 BB, 9.11 K & 0.50 HR. K/BB is 2.59.

Kelly has been a great asset for a Cardinals pitching staff that has had some injuries. Kelly pitched 124 innings and striking out 79 this season. If it was a 200 inning season, it would be 128 strikeouts for Kelly. Kelly’s season was graded to a 77.55% (C), above average for starting pitching. Kelly had a BAA of .250, ERA of 2.69 and a 1.35 WHIP. The rates were decent for Kelly, 23.31% H, 7.89% R, 8.27% BB, 14.85% K, 1.88% HR.

Kelly-Liriano

Prediction:

Joe Kelly: 5.2 IP, 7 H, 2B, HR, 2 R, 3 BB, 4 SO & HBP

Francisco Liriano: 7 IP, 5 H, 2B, R, BB & 5 SO

Which offense players will Kelly and Liriano be concerned for?

  • Joe Kelly: Starling Marte, Pedro Alvarez and Russell Martin
  • Francisco Liriano: Matt Carpenter, Carlos Beltran, Matt Holliday and Jon Jay

PICK: Pirates win and go for clinching game at home

PNC Park

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